Seminar on “Long-term urban water demand forecasting: issues, methods and practices in France and internationally”, December 14th 2017

Jeudi 01 février 2018

Seminar on “Long-term urban water demand forecasting: issues, methods and practices in France and internationally”, December 14th 2017

French page

 Local managers have to anticipate the evolution of urban water demand. This forecasting is often based on very simple methods, such as multiplying the future population by an average unitary requirement (m3 per year per capita). The simplicity of the methods used has often led to an overestimation of future demand, which may put communities with oversized infrastructure in a difficult position (cost recovery issue).

The risk of error in forecasting is now accentuated by breaks in trends and the appearance of new uncertainties. Will per capita water demand continue to decline? Will urban sprawl give way to densification? What will be the effects of climate change on water demand? Taking into account these ruptures and uncertainties requires the mobilisation of new approaches and more sophisticated tools.

In this context, the Brgm and the French Agency for Biodiversity have decided to review the methods for forecasting urban water demand, analyzing current practices in France and internationally as well as innovations from the academic sector.

Objectives of the seminar

  • Discussion and sharing of experience between French actors of the sector (water utilities, consultants, State agencies, etc.)
  • Illustration of the potential of innovative approaches through international case studies and practices in the energy sector
  • Identification of avenues for progress and actions to implement to improve water demand forecasting practices in FranceUsine à eau potable BRGM

BRGM

Presentations


   9h - Welcome and introduction

Introduction and roundtables - Long-term water demand forecasting : issues, methods and current practices in France and abroad - Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (BRGM)

   Session 1 - Issues and current practices of long-term forecasting

Roundtable - In which context is long term forecasting an issue (or not)?

   Session 2 - Methods and tools: international examples

Roundtable - What potential for innovative forecasting methods and tools in France ?


   Session 3 - How to improve practices in France ?

Roundtable - What are the barriers to be lifted to improve demand forecasting (data, skills, financing, regulation, integration with planning processes, etc.) ?


   16h - General conclusion

Summary of discussions and conclusion